Friday, January 11, 2013

Corn and Wheat Up Over 2% on Final USDA 2012 Report

There is something going on in the grains that I don't understand. Despite the Drought Monitor being stuck on superdry:
And trader's muted excitement on the report. Corn is only up 16 cents (2.29%) at $7.1475 with wheat up 2.28% at $7.615. I'd have thought we'd be limit up on both.
Here's Bloomberg:
Corn Jumps as Feed Demand Eroding Drought-Reduced U.S. Supplies
Corn prices jumped the most in three months after the government said stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s largest grower and exporter, shrank more than analysts expected because of a drought-reduced harvest and rising demand for livestock feed.

Inventories on Dec. 1 were 8.03 billion bushels (204 million metric tons), 17 percent less than the 9.647 billion held a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected a drop to 8.219 billion. Supplies held in farmer grain bins fell 26 percent from a year earlier to the smallest for that time of year since 1995. The USDA said meat and poultry production will be 1.4 percent larger than forecast in December.

Production tumbled 13 percent last year after the worst drought since the 1930s damaged crops across the Midwest. After corn futures rallied as much as 68 percent since mid-June to a record in August, prices since then have slipped as the outlook for global supply improved and demand slowed. Tighter supplies than forecast may boost costs for ethanol producers including Poet LLC, and meat companies including Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD) and Sanderson Farms Inc. (SAFM) that feed the grain to livestock.

“Supplies are tight, and the market’s job is to rally to slow down usage,” Don Roose, the president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa, said in a telephone interview. “Now the attention shifts to prevailing drought conditions in the western Midwest and the upcoming planting season."...MORE
I'm wondering if there isn't some non-U.S. supply that is tempering the buyers enthusiasm.
Here's the Drought Monitor published yesterday:
US Drought Monitor, January 8, 2013