Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Nuveen Strategist: "Gold, Commodities to Fall Again in 2014"

Yeah that's pretty much the way to be positioned. Except maybe for corn trading up 20% from here.
And copper could surprise on the upside. And tallow.
The grease/tallow/lard complex looks to be awakening.
Other than those....
From Barron's:

Bob Doll: Gold, Commodities to Fall Again in 2014
To Bob Doll, the question isn’t why gold fell so hard during 2013. It’s why it took so long.
The former BlackRock (BLK) chief strategist’s “ten predictions” for 2014 includes a call for gold to fall again, along with other commodities.
The lack of a major systemic calamity that might boost the metal’s price, the stubborn absence of inflation, the threat of rising interest rates and the trend of modestly improving economic growth are reasons Doll, who’s now a strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, argues for a fall:
Gold falls for the second year and commodity prices languish
In our opinion, the mystery is not that gold finally came down – the mystery is that it took so long. The preoccupation with gold was originally related to a concern about the viability of the financial system, and the concern about inflation with so much money being “thrown” at this system. As neither of those circumstances occurred, gold still traded above $1,500 per ounce for some time before falling last year. Now the added headwinds of improving global growth and a reduction in systemic threats, some rise in real interest rates, and likely dollar improvement, all put further pressure on gold’s allure. In addition, the lack of strong global economic growth and abundant supply for many commodities likely argues for trendless, but volatile (as usual) commodity prices.
...MORE 

Also at Barron's:
Bob Doll: 2014 Predictions