Friday, May 16, 2014

EIA Natural Gas Weekly Supply/Demand Report

The most active futures are at $4.4360, down 3.3 cents.
From The Energy Information Administrtion:
...Overview:
(For the Week Ending Wednesday, May 14, 2014)
  • Natural gas spot prices fell throughout the United States. The Henry Hub decreased by 42 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtu), moving from $4.83/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.41 yesterday.
  • At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the June contract fell by 37 cents/MMBtu, beginning the report week at $4.740/MMBtu last Wednesday and settling at $4.367/MMBtu yesterday.
  • Active oil and natural gas drilling rigs totaled 1,855 as of May 9, up 1 rig from the previous week, according to data from Baker Hughes Inc. The natural gas-directed rig count was flat for the second consecutive week, while the oil-directed rig count increased by 1, to 1,528. The oil rig count is currently 116 higher than this week last year, and the gas rig count is 27 lower.
  • The weekly average natural gas plant liquids composite price decreased for the third consecutive week, falling this week (covering May 5 through May 9) by 2.7% to $9.78/MMBtu, 27 cents/MMBtu lower than last week. The Mont Belvieu spot prices of ethane, propane, butane, isobutane, and natural gasoline all decreased, by between 1.9% and 3.6%.
  • Working natural gas in storage rose to 1,160 Bcf as of Friday, May 9, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). A net storage increase of 105 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week resulted in storage levels 40.5% below year-ago levels and 45.3% below the 5-year average. Net injections totaled 97 Bcf, with an additional 8 Bcf increase in working gas inventories because of the reclassification of base gas inventories as working gas in the eastern storage region.

Prices/Demand/Supply: Natural gas spot prices decrease throughout the United States. Natural gas prices fell throughout the United States this week. Natural gas demand decreased as temperatures rose in most of the contiguous United States, while domestic production increased significantly. The Henry Hub spot price decreased by 42 cents/MMBtu to $4.41/MMBtu. Prices generally declined by between 20 and 40 cents/MMBtu at most major hubs outside of the Northeast, including in the Rockies and Midcontinent regions, where temperatures cooled this week....MUCH MORE
Temperature -- Heating & Cooling Degree Days (week ending May 08)
HDD deviation from:
CDD deviation from:
Region
HDD Current
normal
last year
CDD Current
normal
last year
New England
80
-5
7
0
0
0
Middle Atlantic
69
-1
15
0
-1
0
E N Central
71
-4
30
5
1
5
W N Central
58
-7
-53
14
7
14
South Atlantic
22
-7
-25
38
11
21
E S Central
19
-8
-27
30
12
20
W S Central
7
-1
-37
50
9
36
Mountain
56
-22
-29
16
2
5
Pacific
38
-9
11
9
3
-1
United States
50
-6
-3
19
5
11

Note that despite slightly cooler than average temps in all regions prices fell. Supply has definitely increased so there is a real supply/demand battle going on. We still prefer the equities to the futures.
Yesterday:
Natural Gas Storage Injections Come in Light, Futures Jump