Friday, May 9, 2014

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

The futures are down 3.2 cents at $4.54. Our proxy for the equities, the First Trust ISE-Revere ETF, is down a half-percent at $21.83.
From the Energy Information Administration:

...Prices/Demand/Supply:
Natural gas spot prices are flat to down slightly. On moderating weather and ample natural gas supply, most locations were flat or posted modest price declines for the week. The Henry Hub spot price was an exception, rising by 5 cents, moving from $4.78/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.83 yesterday. In the Northeast, prices fell over the week and are generally below the Henry Hub price, even those delivering to major population centers. The Algonquin Citygate price delivering to Boston fell by just under a dime, from $4.52/MMBtu to $4.43, and Transco Zone 6 delivering to New York City fell by just under a nickel, from $4.23/MMBtu to $4.19. Spot prices at Leidy, which is one of the trading locations that are considered a reflection for the price of Marcellus natural gas, fell sharply from $4.09/MMBtu to $3.57, trading at an average discount of 94 cents to Henry Hub over the week.

In the West, the Malin price for delivery into southern Oregon fell from $4.73/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.65 yesterday. In the Rockies, the Opal price for delivery in Wyoming fell from $4.67/MMBtu on Wednesday to $4.61 yesterday. And in the Midwest, the Chicago Citygate price fell from $4.89/MMBtu to $4.78 over the report period.

Nymex price falls slightly. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the June contract declined, beginning the week at $4.815/MMBtu last Wednesday and settling at $4.740 yesterday. The 12-month strip (the average of the June 2014 through May 2015 contracts) similarly fell, moving from $4.882/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.796 yesterday.

Ethane exports begin. Throughout 2013 and so far in 2014, the price of spot ethane has been on average below that of natural gas. This has been caused by the rapid increase in natural gas plant liquids production and the lag in development of ethane demand. Favorably priced ethane has caused new ethane-consuming petrochemical facilities to begin development, some of which have come online, and for the first time in more than two decades, the United States is exporting ethane to Canada. Despite this, demand for ethane is still well below potential supply. Large volumes of ethane are being left in the natural gas stream by gas processors, a phenomenon known as ethane rejection.

Ethane is gaseous at standard temperature and pressure, and requires pipelines or chilled, high-pressure tanks to transport, in some ways similar to natural gas. As a result, ethane is a much less fungible product than propane or crude oil, and new supply is not as easily absorbed. Because of substantial sunk costs associated with creating new ethane demand, ethane purchase contracts may commit parties for long durations.

Natural gas supply increases slightly. According to Bentek Energy data, overall supply increased by 0.3% compared to last week. A small decrease in production (0.1%) was offset by an increase in imports from Canada (7.8%). Total imports from Canada were driven up largely on increased imports in the Midwest. In the Northeast, the United States exported small net volumes of gas to Canada over the report week....MORE
Temperature -- Heating & Cooling Degree Days (week ending May 01)
HDD deviation from:
CDD deviation from:
Region
HDD Current
normal
last year
CDD Current
normal
last year
New England
125
23
28
0
0
0
Middle Atlantic
99
14
18
0
0
0
E N Central
93
3
22
0
-1
-3
W N Central
108
29
34
1
-3
-3
South Atlantic
34
-3
-15
37
14
17
E S Central
25
-9
-20
13
3
6
W S Central
19
7
0
41
9
8
Mountain
101
11
29
6
-6
-12
Pacific
44
-9
20
11
6
6
United States
72
5
15
14
3
4
Note: HDD = heating degree-day; CDD = cooling degree-day