Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Tesla Options Pricing In 10% Move on Earnings (TSLA)

TSLA is at $200.15, down $7.13. The round number doesn't seem to matter to the stock's trading memory, the line since the last report has been $193.64 on a closing basis with one intraday drop below that level, to $184.32 on April 15. TSLA rallied back that day to close at $193.91.
From MoneyBeat:

Options Traders Brace for Swing for Tesla; Declines May Spell Trouble 
Options traders are bracing for a doubled-digit swing in shares of Tesla Motors Inc.TSLA -3.63% after it reports first-quarter earnings today. But given how wild the company’s stock has been, that’s not so unusual.
More important for the stocks outlook, says one technical analyst, is that a selloff on earnings could pave the way for more losses to come.

Options pricing implies that Tesla could swing about 10% before the end of the week, based on a neutral strategy known as a “straddle.” A straddle can be profitable if a stock rises or falls more than expected.
That compares to an average 9.6% post-results move over the past three years, and an 11% move the past two years.

Over the last year, the swings have been even more wild, with average price moves of 15%.

“It’s a big earnings mover, no doubt about it,” Mr. Salamone said. “But looking at the May open-interest configuration, there’s not a major directional bias heading into the report. There really isn’t a consensus.”...MORE