Monday, June 30, 2014

Trying to Time The Warning From the Bank For International Settlements

As mentioned in yesterday's BIS: "Overall, it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets' buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally", the BIS made their 2007 warning:
THE risk of a 1930s-style economic slump has been heightened by "euphoric" markets tapping cheap global credit, one of the world's pre-eminent financial institutions has said.
In its annual report, the Bank for International Settlements noted that the conditions that led to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Asian crises in the 1990s reflected the current environment....
in the Annual report released 24 June 2007.
Here's that 77th report and here's the 78th (2008)

In August 2007 the market and in particular the funds suffered what came to be called the "Quant Quake".
As the Financial Times reported on Aug. 13, 2007, Mr. Viniar said one of the dumbest things of his life:
“We were seeing things that were 25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row” 
That was only prelude. So six weeks give or take. More than enough time to get to 1999.99 on the S&P.

Here's the Financial Times with their take on the latest warning:
‘Euphoric’ capital markets are out of step with reality, warns BIS
The Bank for International Settlements has warned that “euphoric” financial markets have become detached from the reality of a lingering post-crisis malaise, as it called for governments to ditch policies that risk stoking unsustainable asset booms.
While the global economy is struggling to escape the shadow of the crisis of 2007-09, capital markets are “extraordinarily buoyant”, the Basel-based bank said, in part because of the ultra-low monetary policy being pursued around the world.

Leading central banks should not fall into the trap of raising rates “too slowly and too late”, the BIS said, calling for policy makers to halt the steady rise in debt burdens around the world and embark on reforms to boost productivity. 

In its annual report, the BIS also warned of the risks brewing in emerging markets, setting out early warning indicators of possible banking crises in a number of jurisdictions, including most notably China.

“Particularly for countries in the late stages of financial booms, the trade-off is now between the risk of bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle and that of suffering a bigger bust later on,” it said....MUCH MORE  
'Euphoric' capital markets are out of step with reality, warns ...