Wednesday, October 15, 2014

"10-Year Treasury Yield Plunges Below 2% On Weak Economic Data"

Just to be clear: we are not Jeff Gundlach fanbois.
In fact if the allegations in "Latest Twist in the Jeffrey Gundlach Bonds, Drugs and Porn Litigation" are true you might not even want to have a beer with him
However investmentwise, he has been on a bit of a roll. On Monday we noted his call on homebuilders, which we missed and pointed out his call on interest rates, which we did not miss:
The Man Who Called This Year's Decline In Interest Rates
Here's where we are today, this 15th day of October, 2014.

From Barron's Income Investing column:
Bond yields continued their improbable recent plunge following a trio of weaker-than-expected economic reports that have pushed Treasury yields to 16-month lows today. The 10-year note is down a whopping 1 29/32 in price already today, cutting its yield below 2% for the first time this year to 1.988%. Today’s lows are the lowest yields seen since May 2013, when interest rates spiked on worries about the Federal Reserve’s plans to curb its bond-buying program. The 30-year bond is up 3 21/32 to yield 2.775%, and the 2-year note is up 5/32 to yield 0.288%, all per Tradweb data....MORE
ZeroHedge is pointing out a timing issue:
For Bond Shorts, The Pain Has Only Just Begun
Speculative short positioning in 10Y Treasury futures, according to CFTC, is at its highest since 2007 as traders added to shorts last week. Net positioning in 10Y Treasuries overall is its most short since June as shorts piled on in the last 2 weeks by the most since the Taper Tantrum.


Net positioning

...MORE

Earlier:
Producer Prices Come In At Negative .1% For September: Pray SocGen's Albert Edwards Is Wrong