Friday, October 3, 2014

"Technical Trading: Charts Don't Lie, No Sign Of A Bottom In Silver" (SLV)

For the last couple months we've been thinking that silver was the easier and higher probability bet in the precious metal race to the bottom and son-of-a-gun, waddaya know, a trend is emerging!
December futures $16.865.
From Kitco:
Charts don't lie. And, for now the technical trend points down for silver. December Comex silver prices tumbled below the $17.00 level this week, which marked a new 2014 low for the silver market and the lowest level for December futures prices since February 2010.

For now, there is no sign of a bottom on the silver chart. The bears are in control.

Looking at action in recent months, since marking out a summer high at $21.67 in early July, Comex December silver futures have been in a steady slide lower. 
Silver slammed to a fresh 2014 low on Friday in knee-jerk reaction following a better-than-expected U.S. employment report. Silver futures jabbed lower hitting a low at $16.64 before rebounding off their early lows.

For now, there are no signs of a major low forming on the daily chart for silver, there are no basing or bottom patterns developing. In this case, the old market adage: "the trend is your friend" will be true until proven otherwise.

Let's take a look at some of the technical indicators for further clues on the silver market outlook. Trend following indicators, such as moving averages are all solidly bearish for the silver market. Dec silver is trading below its 10-day, 20-day, 40-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. That position tends to keep trend following traders negative on a market....MORE
Here is the gold/silver race, proxied by their respective physical ETF's:
Chart forSPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

Recently:
Sept. 30
Gold, Silver Resume Decline
...We continue to believe the collapse in precious is the highest probability trade you'll find and that silver is the easier call of the two....
Sept. 19 
Gold Down, Silver Collapses
Sept. 11
Chartology: "The Downside Target in Silver is Below $15"
As we've noted over the last few months when posting on gold and silver "...The easier call has been silver".
Sept. 10
Silver Bounces at Support For the Fourth Time In 14 Months
Sept.5
An Argument For $13 Silver and $1100 Gold 
Sept. 2
Gold: "There's something wrong with our bloody ships today, Chatfield"
...The easier call has been silver:
Gold, Silver Continue Fearless Decline