Tuesday, November 11, 2014

A Victory For "Experts": Italians Who Proffered Earthquake Advice Aquitted Of Manslaughter by Appeals Court

We've been following this case very closely.
From the journal Science:
L'AQUILA, ITALY—Shouts of "Shame, shame!" greeted the appeals court here today after the acquittal of six scientists convicted of manslaughter 2 years ago for advice they gave ahead of the deadly earthquake that struck this central Italian town in 2009. The scientists were convicted in October 2012, and handed 6-year jail sentences, for their role in a meeting of an official government advisory panel.

Only one of the seven experts originally found guilty was convicted today: Bernardo De Bernardinis, who in 2009 was deputy head of Italy's Civil Protection Department and who will now serve 2 years in jail, pending any further appeals.

The experts attended a meeting of the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks, held on 31 March 2009 to evaluate the threat posed by a series of small and medium-sized tremors that had been shaking L'Aquila for several months. The meeting took place 6 days before the fatal quake struck, and in 2012, Judge Marco Billi ruled that the commission members carried out a "superficial, approximate and generic" risk analysis, and that they made a number of reassuring statements that led 29 of the quake's 309 victims to remain indoors at the time of the disaster, despite the occurrence of two moderate tremors several hours beforehand.

In their verdict today, a panel of three judges headed by Fabrizia Francabandera told the court that only in De Bernardinis's case could a link be proven between the expert's words and the actions of some of the victims.

Speaking immediately after the verdict, De Bernardinis said he could face "God and men" with a clear conscience—although he previously declared that had he been a father of one of the victims, he, too, would have sought justice. "I am relieved but I can't say I'm happy. I am embittered but relieved," said volcanologist Franco Barberi, who at the time of the meeting was the commission’s vice president, about his acquittal. His lawyer, Francesco Petrelli, described the verdict as "inevitable," adding that the original sentence was "visibly wrong in the facts and in law."

Others in the packed courtroom, including some of the relatives of the quake victims, reacted angrily. Angelo Colagrande, representing bereaved surgeon Vincenzo Vittorini, said he was certain that the court acted in "good faith," but that there existed proof of the experts' guilt. "Today we have an earthquake after the earthquake," he said.

Billi's original verdict generated controversy the world over and led many to argue that science itself had been found guilty. In explaining his sentence, the judge was at pains to emphasize that he had not convicted the experts for having failed to predict the earthquake—something, he said, that is beyond the powers of current science—but rather for having failed to carry out their legally binding duties as "public officials." He said that the experts had not analyzed a series of factors indicating a heightened seismic risk, including the fact that previous quakes to have destroyed the town were accompanied by smaller tremors, as well as the nature of the ongoing swarm itself.

In their appeals, the lawyers of the convicted experts objected to the sentence on multiple grounds, taking aim at both the alleged negligence of their clients and the existence of a "causal link" between the experts' statements and people's decision to stay indoors on the fateful night....MORE
Also at Science:
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Previously:
Oct. 2012
Convicted: Italian Scientists Who Failed to Warn of Earthquake
Sept. 2012
Attention Prognosticators: "Italian Prosecutors Target Scientists Who Failed To Predict the Future" 
July 2012
Market Prognosticators Rejoice! Federal Judge Strikes Down Anti-Fortunetelling Law
January 2011
Tax Policy Debate, Romanian Style (witches, mandrake, cat poo, the usual)
January 2011
Attention Market Pontificators: Witches to be Fined, Jailed if Predictions Don't Pan Out