Monday, December 15, 2014

Gold: Huh. It Looks Like $1240 WAS the Top For This Go-round

It's not supposed to work like this. In mid-October, as the equities were a few hours from their v-bottom I mentioned a price on the chart:
"Fed's Plosser Says Monetary Policy Cannot Do Much About Economic Threat from Ebola"
-ZeroHedge

Trend Analysis:
A close below DJIA 15,000 would indicate the need to implement a guns & ammo hedge with either the prepper food or MRE overlay and, if your counterparty offers it, a bunker option might be wise to cover some black swan risk. Buy gold.
(just kidding, a gold short at $1240 sounds lovely)
Not because of any great insight. No hours spent comparing gold's recent chart action to that of July 2013 or some other date it was in that area. No intermarket analysis of gold and Indian guar futures.

No, it was simply because $1240 looked  like a place where "congestion" could develop on the chart.

That kind of thing is nervous-making because it was probably a vestigial pattern-recognition which is great, humans are really good at pattern recognition but which is dangerous because we are so good that if a pattern isn't readily apparent the brain will just make something up to tell ourselves a story.

Today's lesson: What's on your mind?

$1197.50 last, down a bunch. We'll have to see more downside to decisively clear all the buyers who came in at $1180-1195 on the way up but the series of lower highs is comforting to those with an ursine outlook.

The daily chart via FinViz:
Does the bit at the end look like a buzzard to you?

See also:
Dec. 1
"P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Soars to 5-Week High on Major Rebound; Bulls Regain Technical Momentum"
Crapski.
Kitco spot up $46.30 at $1214.80. We are bearish but this move could run to $1240-45 before it resumes the downtrend....
Dec. 9
Gold Flirts With $1240, Now What?
Today's top tick for the most active (Feb.) contract was $1239.00.
$1231.90 up $37 last....