Thursday, April 9, 2015

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey On First Solar's New Yieldco (FSLR; SPWR)

I know, not Friedman anymore, FBR & Co.
It's just that I still have a problem with Merrill, Lynch dropping Beane.
It takes me a while to adjust.

The stock has exhibited the effects of what seems to be a relentless bid since the announcement of the yieldco and a break above the top of the widening megaphone could pave the way for a relatively quick $10 upmove:


$61.02 up 38 cents.
From Bidness Etc.:

8point3 To Boost First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Price To $70: FBR & Co.
FBR & Co. takes a first look at 8point3 and the implications of successful Yield Co. launch on Frist Solar stock 
FBR & Co. has taken a look at the launch of 8point3 Energy Partners LPand the implications the launch of this Yield Co. launch will have for the stock price of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR). The sell-side research firm believes First Solar stock could rise to $70 per share, it wrote in a report published on Wednesday.
 
What is 8point3? 8point3 Energy Partners LP is a joint Yield Co. between First Solar and Sun Power , launched with an initial portfolio of 430 total megawatts (MWs) or 307 net MWs of solar assets based in the US; five times smaller than its Yield Co. competitors, which have an average size of above 2 gigawatt (GW). However, Sun Power and First Solar have picked a total of 1.1GW of Right Of First Offer (ROFO) assets to be transferred to 8point3 during 2017. The ROFO assets consist predominantly of utility scale assets within in the US and 200 MWs from Chile and Japan.

8point3 potential valuation
FBR’s proprietary risk analysis has assigned 8point3 a risk score of 16.1, which is in-line with Brookfield Energy Partners (15.5), with a lesser risk than Abengoa (31.1), and although well above TerraForm (11.1). The sell-side firm anticipates an apposite 2017 dividend yield of 7% for 8point3, a 100 basis point premium to TerraForm.
 Moreover, 8point3 has Cash Available For Distribution (CAFD) generation potential between $148 million and $217 million by 2017, according to FBR’s proprietary solar project models. By combining the 7% dividend yield and an 85% dividend payout of CAFD, the estimated market cap could be $1.8 - $3.3 billion....MORE