Tuesday, July 12, 2016

USDA World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) For July 2016

We're in the stretch where the monthly reports can start moving markets around.

Symbol Last Chg
Corn         360-2 +4-6
Soybeans 1080-0 +25-0
Wheat 436-6 +6-2

From Agrimoney:

Grain prices rebound, after US data on corn, wheat stocks fall short
Grain prices rebounded after the US said its corn stocks would not rise nearly as much as investors had expected, while making a surprise cut to estimates for wheat inventories, citing strong feed usage. 
Corn futures for December, which had stood 1.4% lower ahead of the US Department of Agriculture's flagship Wasde crop report, bounced to post a gain of 2.0% immediately after the briefing was released. 
Wheat futures for September, which had been trading 0.8% in negative territory, revived to see a 1.7% gain. 
November soybean futures, meanwhile, for which the Wasde was less upbeat held onto gains, standing 1.3% higher at $10.68 ¼ a bushel. 
Export aid
The grain price gains followed an estimate in the Wasde, the USDA's flagship world crop supply and demand report, that US corn stocks would end 2016-17, which starts in September, at 2.08bn bushels (52.9m tonnes). 
While representing an upgrade of 73m bushels on last month's estimate, and rise of 380m bushels year on year, the revised figure was well below the level that the market had expected, after the USDA at the end of last month lifted expectations for domestic corn sowings this year. 
Although the USDA lifted its estimate for the US harvest to 14.5bn bushels (369.3m tonnes), and trimmed hopes for domestic feed use of the grain, the revisions were offset in part by raised hopes for exports, after drought cut supplies in rival Brazil. 
"Exports [for 2016-17] are projected 100m bushels higher on reduced competition from Brazil, as reflected by new-crop export sales that are well above a year ago," the USDA said.
'Heavy late-season rain' 
For wheat, price headway was supported by an unexpected downgrade of 4.1m tonnes to the estimate for world stocks at the close of 2016-17....MORE
Here's the USDA's WASDE page.