From the National Hurricane Center:
ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 910 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 ...IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT CUDJOE KEY IN LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key in the lower Florida Keys at 9:10 am EDT. A gust to 106 mph (171 km/h) was just reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key. SUMMARY OF 910 AM EDT...1310 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 81.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES $$ Forecaster Landsea/Mello NNNN
Here's the radar loop.Big Pine Key, Summerland Key and Cudjoe Key in the eye of Hurricane #Irma. Do not venture outside https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb @NWS @NOAA pic.twitter.com/0qlPQqG7Zi— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) September 10, 2017
The weather forecast from the Tampa Bay Times:
Today... Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots increasing to 40 to 45 knots with gusts to around 65 knots. Bay and inland waters extremely rough. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms.Irma's estimated arrival time at Tampa-St. Pete:
Tonight... Northeast winds 50 to 55 knots with gusts to around 75 knots increasing to 80 to 85 knots with gusts to around 110 knots late in the evening, then becoming southeast 90 to 95 knots with gusts to around 120 knots after midnight then becoming southwest 80 to 85 knots with gusts to around 110 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters extremely rough. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms.
| 24 hr Forecast | |
| Valid at: 2:00 AM EDT September 11, 2017 | |
| Location: 27.8 N, -82.8 W | |
| Maximum Wind: 100 knots (115 mph) | |
| Wind Gusts: 120 knots (140 mph) | Interactive map |
You'd prefer your hurricane visitor didn't arrive exactly at high tide, storm surge and all that gets added on top of whatever the tide is doing; although once the surge gets higher than 5-6 feet, unless you are a pro basketball player the exact height doesn't matter anymore. Anyhoo, here are the next few high and low tides:
| 2017/09/10 | Sun | 04:46 AM | 2.42 | H |
| 2017/09/10 | Sun | 11:38 AM | 0.51 | L |
| 2017/09/10 | Sun | 6:03 PM | 2.06 | H |
| 2017/09/10 | Sun | 11:27 PM | 1.19 | L |
| 2017/09/11 | Mon | 05:24 AM | 2.50 | H |
| 2017/09/11 | Mon | 12:44 PM | 0.48 | L |
| 2017/09/11 | Mon | 7:20 PM | 1.85 | H |
As can be seen, even the low tide on Sunday is going to be above the Mean Lower Low Water benchmark but at least Irma is going to be unfashionably early for Tampa's high tide for Monday.
Again, this exercise is not all that helpful unless you're really tall to start with and you can keep your nose above the storm surge:
So here's Blondie:Forget the tide. Regardless of high/low tide, catastrophic storm surge flooding expected along portions of FL W coast & FL Keys.— NHC_Surge (@NHC_Surge) September 9, 2017
